The Number of Fires and Who Lights them
The Australian Productivity Commission has calculated that between 2001–02 and 2006–07, the number bushfires in Australia varied from approximately 46,000 to 62,000 per year, with an average of nearly 54,000 fires per year (SGRSP 2008). This agrees quite closely with the average of nearly 52,000 fires per year calculated by the Australian Institute of Criminology (Bryant 2008) using data from fire agencies from 1995–06 to 2005–06. It is estimated that 50 percent of fires are either deliberately lit or suspicious in origin as shown in Figure 1.
Source: Bryant 2008
In Australia, it is difficult to get a consolidated understanding of the profile of bushfire arsonists and their motivations, mainly because of the low numbers that are apprehended.
There is quite a rich international literature where numbers are higher which suggests a distinct profile, that is, white male, mid-20s, patchy employment record, often above average intelligence but poor academic achievement and poor social development (Willis 2004).
However, it is not clear whether this would translate to the Australian context. The results of studies that looked at levels of recidivism have been ambiguous (AIC 2007b).
Between 2001 and 2006, 56 percent (n=615/1,099) of convicted structural arsonists and 37 percent (n=49/133) of bushfire arsonists in New South Wales had a prior conviction for a previous offence which suggests that arsonists are not generally specialist offenders (AIC 2007a).
- Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) 2007a. Reoffending arsonists in NSW. Bushfire arson bulletin no. 46. Canberra: AIC. http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current series/bfab/41-60/bfab046.aspx
- Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) 2007b. Are arsonists repeat offenders? Bushfire arson bulletin no. 45. Canberra: AIC. http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current series/bfab/41-60/bfab045.aspx
- Bryant C 2008. Understanding bushfires: trends in deliberate vegetation fires in Australia. Technical and background paper series no. 27. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current series/tbp/21-40/tbp027.aspx
- Steering Group for the Review of Service Provision (SGRSP) 2008. Australian Productivity Commission: report on government services 2008-part D emergency management. http://www.pc.gov.au/gsp/reports/rogs/2008/emergencymanagement
- Willis M 2004. Bushfire arson: a review of the literature. Research and public policy series no. 61. http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/current series/rpp/61-80/rpp61.aspx
Here are all the links to the ‘Bushfires’ Articles mentioned on last weeks ConspiracyOz Podcast – Mick Raven
1967 Tasmanian fires
Although this fire was by far the worst in loss of life and property in Tasmanian history, the meteorological conditions are common. McArthur’s report on the fire notes that “very similar conditions have occurred on three or four occasions during the past 70 years.” 1967 Tasmanian fires – Wikipedia